Bring it in – Price forecast competition 2017

Last January we invited our clients receiving the Daily Newsletter to do the impossible and guess the highest settlement price of the EUA daily futures (considered as spot) in 2016 on ICE.

In 2016 the settlement price of the EUA daily futures moved between 3.93 euro and 8.04 euro, with an average of 5.35 euro.

Knowing how volatile the carbon market is, it seemed a mission impossible indeed to guess the highest settlement price of the year.

The numbers we received ranged from 7.50 euro to 10.15 euro. A Hungarian client, however, managed to hit the 8.04 euro maximum exactly.

His award is a bottle of good quality Hungarian wine. Congratulations!

With back-loading expiring, negotiations about the post-2020 reform continuing and elections in many EU member states, 2017 seems to be another exciting and volatile year in the carbon market. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters just reduced their average price expectations for 2017 by 3% (see the table below).

Do you dare to have your own forecast? As poker professionals say: bring it in (start betting on the first round). We encourage you to send us your estimate for the highest settlement price of the EUA daily futures (spot) contract on ICE in 2017. The deadline for submitting your bet expires 31 January end of business (18:00pm). All bets received via phone, mail, skype etc. are accepted.

EUA price forecast consensus (last updated 09/01/2017 by Thomson Reuters)

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