(Polski) Umowa Paryska bliska wejścia w życie

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(Polski) Analiza tygodniowa rynku CO2

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(Polski) Ograniczenie gazów cieplarnianych szkodliwe dla Polski

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(Polski) Analiza tygodniowa rynku CO2

Sorry, this entry is only available in Polski.

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Buy in July and fly away

In the title we modified a little bit the proverb from the stock markets (“Sell in May and go away”) to adapt it to the current carbon market situation.

The shock after the Brexit referendum pushed the EUA price below 5 euro, although the benchmark carbon contract lost already more than 30% between December 2015 and the day of the UK referendum.

After consolidating between 4.50 and 5.00 euro in the first half of July, the price seems to have changed direction. It gained more than 10% since 11 July.

Although the energy fundamentals are also supportive, there are some factors related to the EUA supply that might be even stronger and pull the price higher.

  • Daily auction volumes are halved in August to reflect the allegedly lower hedging demand of European utilities (as their employees are either on holidays or running regular maintenance).
  • The European Commission announced 15 July that due to the time needed to establish the necessary arrangements with EEX as the common auction platform from 5 September, the auctions scheduled for between 22 August and 1 September will be cancelled. (The volume of 8,597,500 EUAs will be added to later auctions after September.)

The two measures mentioned above cut the auction supply in August to 32 million compared to 70 million in July (-54% m/m).

As the chart below shows, last year, when the supply was only affected by the halving of the daily auction volume, the price appreciated by 2.5%. Due to the cancelled auctions a more significant price increase is expected.

We therefore suggest purchasing the allowances you need before August in order to not have to watch the chart and hunt for local minimums in an increasing trend. For further detail contact your trader.

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